Oil Jumps to $116 After Attacks in Saudi Arabia: What It Means for Petrol in Pakistan
Brent crude settled at $116.72 on 23 October 2026, its highest since April, after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia. Here is how it affects petrol and diesel prices in Pakistan.
Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday, 23 October 2026, up 3.1% on the day and more than 6% for the week, its highest level since April. US crude (WTI) settled at $103.27. The jump came after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu and on an oil field and airport in the kingdom. For Pakistan, which imports most of its fuel, higher crude prices feed into petrol and diesel rates within days, because OGRA now issues price sheets almost every working day.
Oil prices on 23 October 2026
| Benchmark | Settlement | Daily change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent (December contract) | $116.72 a barrel | +3.1% |
| WTI (December contract) | $103.27 a barrel | +3.8% |
Brent is up more than 85% this year and was below $97 at the start of October, according to a separate market report in TT News.
Why oil jumped this week
- Attacks in Saudi Arabia: the Houthis claimed strikes on the port of Yanbu, Saudi Arabia’s main Red Sea export outlet, and on an oil field and an airport.
- Aramco precaution: state oil company Aramco evacuated its Dhahran headquarters on Thursday after an alarm and asked staff to work from home.
- The US-Iran conflict: supply fears were already high as the conflict nears its ninth month, and efforts to restart US-Iran talks have stalled.
- Tight fuel supplies: limited shipments of refined products from the Gulf and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have led some governments to draw on emergency stocks.
Analysts quoted by Bloomberg expect prices to stay volatile. TD Securities said it expects crude to “remain skewed to the upside in the near term”.
What it means for petrol prices in Pakistan
Pakistan’s fuel prices follow international product prices and the rupee-dollar exchange rate. Since OGRA moved to near-daily pricing, changes abroad reach the pump much faster than under the old fortnightly system: OGRA issued 14 price sheets between 1 and 20 October alone.
| OGRA sheet | Petrol (per litre) | Diesel (per litre) |
|---|---|---|
| 9 October 2026 (October high for petrol) | Rs 398.96 | – |
| 20 October 2026 | Rs 381.14 | Rs 389.27 |
| 24 October 2026 (latest we reported) | Rs 377.71 | Rs 393.66 |
Petrol eased through mid-October. The OGRA sheets published after this week’s jump will show how much of the rise passes through; if Brent stays well above $110, upward pressure on pump prices is likely. We do not forecast exact rupee figures, because the final price also depends on the exchange rate, freight and the government’s levy decisions.
Can the government cushion the rise?
Room is limited. Under the IMF staff-level agreement reached on 7 October 2026, Pakistan committed to phase out its fuel support scheme promptly and to keep any future fuel relief limited, time-bound and targeted through existing social assistance programmes. A broad cut in the petroleum levy would also work against the budget’s primary surplus target of 2% of GDP (see our Budget 2026-27 guide).
Wider effects on Pakistan
- Import bill: oil is Pakistan’s biggest import, so a sustained rise puts pressure on the current account and the rupee.
- Inflation: fuel feeds into transport fares and food prices. The IMF noted headline inflation of about 10.3% in September 2026.
- Markets: the KSE-100 fell 2.43% last week as oil prices climbed (see our weekly market review).
Sources: Bloomberg report via Rigzone (23 October 2026); TT News (23 October 2026); OGRA price publications; IMF staff-level agreement as reported by Gulf News (8 October 2026). Featured image: AI-generated illustration, for representation only.
